The State Bank of India’s (SBI) Ecowrap reportestimated India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth may fall to 1% in FY21 from its earlier projections of 2.6%, with the likelihood of 1st quarter growth contracting 6% or more and 2nd quarter witnessing no growth due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic outbreak. The FY20 GDP growth has been revised from 5% to 4.1%
The Japanese brokerage company Nomurahas projected a downward revision by 1% for Indian economy in the April-June quarter and by 0.5% for the September quarter. It is likely to expand only in the December quarter of 2020 by 1.4%. The economy will grow at 3.2% in the January-March period. Nomura is also expecting another 0.75% rate cuts by RBI to push growth in 2020. The major factor behind all these trims is the COVID-19 crisis.
Indian economy, GDP The coronavirus pandemic is a "severe demand shock" for the Indian economy and could lead to further moderation in the country's GDP growth as the coronavirus-induced lockdown is causing significant disruption across multiple sectors. According to Dun & Bradstreet, besides the impact on human lives and the global supply chain, the pandemic is a severe demand shock which has offset the green shoots of recovery of the Indian economy that were visible towards the end of 2019 and early 2020. Accordingly, Dun & Bradstreet has revised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for India downwards by 0.2 percentage points for fiscal year 2020 to 4.8 percent and by 0.5 percent for the fiscal year 2021 to 6 percent.
Despite the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) massive actions to spur the economy, India's gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to contract by 4.5 per cent in the April-June 2020 quarter and will rise by only 2 per cent in 2020-21 on the coronavirus impact, according to domestic rating agency Icra While announcing a number of measures in the policy review, the RBI refrained from giving its estimate on both growth and inflation, saying things are fluid and rapidly changing. The Indian economy was already supposed to clock a decadal low growth of 5 per cent in 2019-20, according to official estimates, and the coronavirus-related worries have only compounded the problems. Regardless of the measures announced now by the RBI, we are lowering our base case scenario for GDP growth to (-)4.5 per cent for Q1 FY2021 and to 2 per cent for FY21.
According to a report titled “EcoWrap”released by the economic research team from SBI (State Bank of India), India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth is expected to decline sharply to 6 % in the next financial year 2020-21 amid the 21-day lockdown Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic. Key Points: The GDP growth rate in 2019-20 can also be reduced from 5 % to 4.5 % with a 2.5 % increment in the fourth quarter (Q4) of the current financial year.
Moody's Investors Service 2020 reduced India’s GDP growth in 2020 to 2.5 percent from the earlier estimate of 5.3 percent. Moody’s said that the COVID-19 pandemic will cause unprecedented shock to the global economy including the Indian economy. It said in its Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 that India will see a sharp fall in incomes at an estimated 2.5 percent growth rate.
Fitch Ratings Inc, an American credit rating agency,has lowered India’s GDP(Gross Domestic Product) growth forecast to 9% for the fiscal year –FY20 (2019-2020) ending March 31,2020. It cuts the rate from 5.1% predicted earlier, due to coronavirus, weak domestic demand and supply disruptions, which put pressure on the manufacturing sector.
In terms of purchasing power parity(PPP), India’s GDP is $10.51 trillion, exceeding that of Japan and Germany. Due to India’s high population, India’s GDP per capita is $2,170. Table showing Top 5 Largest Economies of World: [table id=11 /] The US-based World Population Review is an independent organization without any political affiliations.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered India’s economic growth estimate for the current fiscal to 4.8% and listed the country’s much lowerthan-expected GDP numbers as the single biggest drag on its global growth forecast for two years. In October, the IMF had pegged India’s economic growth at 6.1% for 2019. Compared to the October World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, the estimate for 2019 and the projection for 2020 represent 0.1 percentage point reduction for each year while that for 2021 is 0.2 percentage point lower.
India's GDP growth is seen dipping to an 11-year low of 5 per cent in the current fiscal, mainly due to poor showing by manufacturing and construction sectors. As per the first advance estimates of the national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the manufacturing sector output growth will decelerate to 2 per cent in 2019-20, down from 6.9 per cent in the previous financial year.
