Physical Geography
El Niño could become the most intense since 1950
- Background: According to the US-based ‘National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’ (NOAA), the El Niño event currently prevailing in the Pacific Ocean could intensify in the coming months and become one of the most significant events in history.
About El Niño
- In Spanish, El Niño means “little boy.”
- It is a climate phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels.
- During El Niño periods, trade winds weaken.
- As a result:
- Warm ocean water moves eastward—towards the west coasts of North and South America.
- Cooler water is pushed towards Asia; this reduces the upwelling of cold water that normally occurs in the eastern Pacific region.
Impacts of El Niño on Weather
- Global Temperature Rise
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- El Niño raises global temperatures, resulting in weather that is warmer than usual in many parts of the world.
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- Weakening of the Indian Monsoon
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- In India, El Niño generally weakens the Southwest Monsoon.
- This can lead to: Reduced rainfall, Drought conditions, Water scarcity
- Increased risk of wildfires
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- El Niño increases the likelihood of forest and bushfires, particularly in: Australia, Southern Africa, Parts of North and South America
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- Extreme weather events
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- It can trigger frequent and high-intensity weather events, such as: Storms, hurricanes, and cyclones
- These impacts are particularly observed in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean regions.
NOAA’s latest forecast
- According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):
- There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño event occurring between October and December.
- If it develops, it could rank among the strongest El Niño events recorded since 1950.
El Niño and India’s monsoon
- In about 60% of years marked by El Niño, India experienced below-normal monsoon rainfall.
- In the remaining 40% of El Niño years, normal monsoon rainfall occurred.
